Are the US – PH ties still firm? Will US intervene militarily, if China attacks?

US – PH ties are undergoing a testing time.

Relationships that have been continuing since a long time may, at times, be beyond the stage of understanding to the beholder. It seems that this analogy might be applicable eventually to the long-term association of the United States with the Philippines.

Be that as it may, it is still too early to firmly foretell the route that the love-hate alliance will take in due course; this is because there are too many untested variables that will unfold as time passes.

President Duterte has been lambasting the United States for all sorts of misdemeanors and being unconcerned with the general well-being of the Filipino masses. He even told them that their military bases in the Philippines were also only for the convenience of the US army not for the benefit of the people of the Philippines.

There are as many opinions as observers and commentators each with his own take and reasoning; hence, there is nothing new or surprising when a security analyst from the US says that the bonds between the two countries are still as strong as ever.

Mutual Defense Treaty

Once we begin to wonder as to what is meant by this statement and analyze the events of the past few weeks, it may dawn on us that some indicators do exist that suggest such a possibility.

The main argument for this can be that, even though so much has been uttered by President Duterte, the alliance is still intact with neither side initiating the process for a breakup.

Understanding Duterte should not be easy for a country that shows the beacon to the world. Even Duterte has only been hinting and threatening; no concrete step has been adopted to end the alliance.

Gregory Poling is the head of a think tank called Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative and he has come out with the assessment that even though these insults and abusive statements may be causing untold hurt to The US, they must take it as an opportunity to reassure their ally that they stand committed to the Mutual Defense Treaty that they had signed.

Thus, the United States will have to show its magnanimous and mature side and use its vast superior thinking to convince its age-old ally that it was committed enough to use its physical and tactical superiority to physically defend the Philippines in the event of an enemy attack.
Reiterating its commitments to its ally are the only way that the US can get through the message to its allies and adversaries alike so that the message is loud and clear and rings true without any ambiguity.

This was particularly true because China has been cajoling the Philippines in the recent past with enticing offers but how far it will maintain its friendship will have to be seen as the newest friendship unfolds in the waters of the South China Seas.

His reasoning was quite clear and had logic to it; every country has to take care of its own security concerns in the event of an armed conflict. Immediately prior to the verdict of the International arbitral Tribunal, there was a distinct possibility of a warlike situation emerging.
Under the circumstances prevailing then, the Philippines did not have any way of knowing what the intentions of its ally, the United States, would be if there was an invasion by the Chinese.

And, this aspect of US PH ties is in the forefront of the hostile utterances of President Rodrigo Duterte.

What assurance did the Filipinos have from their allies that they would be protected if their vessels or territories were attacked by the Chinese?
Research conducted by the Pew Research Center had conducted an investigation in which three allies of the United States were questioned on whether they were confident that their ally, the United States would be would be intervening militarily in the event of an invasion by China.

The respondents who were the citizens of the Philippines, South Korea and Japan, all allies of the US, all replied in the affirmative expressing the confidence that the US will definitely intervene militarily to assist them.

Poling stated that there was still a lot of strength in the treaty and this needs to be exploited by the US to set the fears of the allies at rest with specific assurances for ensuring their safety and well being.

Moreover, it is in their own interest that the Filipinos also shun their hang-ups and move in a positive manner.
Umrao singh
umraoz.wordpress.com

Monday, 31 October 2016
Written for: Lars-Magnus Carlsson
www.thephilippinepride.com

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